Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.56
LMAT · Why this verdict
Why LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality vascular-device franchise with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record, a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins trades about 12% below the analyst consensus target with a favorable risk/reward; the primary near-term risk is a price pullback that, per the data, has not yet been confirmed as a trend reversal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins versus peers — quality characteristics that compound over time and justify a sustained premium to the sector. Quality breakdown | Gross margin remains above 50% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide moat in a niche surgical-device category depends on continued clinical adoption; a competitive entrant or a shift in surgical technique toward less-invasive alternatives could erode the moat faster than the current quality score implies. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of beating consensus EPS estimates — with an average positive surprise of 11.17% — demonstrate consistent operational execution and suggest management is setting guidance with a meaningful buffer above expected performance. Catalyst track record | The company beats consensus EPS estimates for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect four-quarter streak can create an elevated expectations bar; if a biologic-product supply disruption or a softer surgical procedure quarter causes even a modest miss, the re-rating could be sharp given the premium multiple the streak sustains. | ||
Biologic products represent 53% of revenue as flagged in risk disclosures, creating a meaningful single-category dependency; a regulatory, manufacturing, or demand disruption in this segment would have an outsized impact on total revenue. Bear case | Biologic product revenue concentration falls below 45% of total sales as new product lines contribute a larger share over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 53% revenue contribution from a single category can reflect a durable competitive strength in that category rather than fragility; if the biologic segment itself continues to grow, the concentration may be a feature rather than a flaw. | ||
The price currently sits below its 200-day moving average, yet the moving average slope remains positive at +1.6% over 30 days — consistent with a pullback within an ongoing uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, leaving the technical setup in a watchful, not defensive, posture. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months while the MA slope stays above 0%, confirming the pullback has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterPullbacks that persist long enough can cause the moving average slope to flatten and eventually turn negative; if momentum continues to deteriorate — particularly given the elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 — what reads as a pullback today could become a sustained trend reversal. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins versus peers — quality characteristics that compound over time and justify a sustained premium to the sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margin remains above 50% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next four reported quarters.
CounterA wide moat in a niche surgical-device category depends on continued clinical adoption; a competitive entrant or a shift in surgical technique toward less-invasive alternatives could erode the moat faster than the current quality score implies.
Four consecutive quarters of beating consensus EPS estimates — with an average positive surprise of 11.17% — demonstrate consistent operational execution and suggest management is setting guidance with a meaningful buffer above expected performance.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%.
CounterA perfect four-quarter streak can create an elevated expectations bar; if a biologic-product supply disruption or a softer surgical procedure quarter causes even a modest miss, the re-rating could be sharp given the premium multiple the streak sustains.
Biologic products represent 53% of revenue as flagged in risk disclosures, creating a meaningful single-category dependency; a regulatory, manufacturing, or demand disruption in this segment would have an outsized impact on total revenue.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Biologic product revenue concentration falls below 45% of total sales as new product lines contribute a larger share over the next 4 quarters.
CounterA 53% revenue contribution from a single category can reflect a durable competitive strength in that category rather than fragility; if the biologic segment itself continues to grow, the concentration may be a feature rather than a flaw.
The price currently sits below its 200-day moving average, yet the moving average slope remains positive at +1.6% over 30 days — consistent with a pullback within an ongoing uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, leaving the technical setup in a watchful, not defensive, posture.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months while the MA slope stays above 0%, confirming the pullback has resolved.
CounterPullbacks that persist long enough can cause the moving average slope to flatten and eventually turn negative; if momentum continues to deteriorate — particularly given the elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 — what reads as a pullback today could become a sustained trend reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,339,796 (0.302% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 109.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.81
Upside
+12.0%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Quality at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Value at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four consecutive quarters of beating consensus EPS estimates — with an average positive surprise of 11.17% — demonstrate consistent operational execution and suggest management is setting guidance with a meaningful buffer above expected performance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P2The business carries a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins versus peers — quality characteristics that compound over time and justify a sustained premium to the sector.
Trip ifGross margin falls below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Biologic products represent 53% of revenue as flagged in risk disclosures, creating a meaningful single-category dependency; a regulatory, manufacturing, or demand disruption in this segment would have an outsized impact on total revenue.
Trip ifBiologic product revenue concentration rises above 60% of total sales as disclosed in a quarterly filing.
- P4The price currently sits below its 200-day moving average, yet the moving average slope remains positive at +1.6% over 30 days — consistent with a pullback within an ongoing uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, leaving the technical setup in a watchful, not defensive, posture.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns negative (below 0% over a 30-day window) and price remains below the 200-day moving average for 6 consecutive weeks.