Should you buy LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT)?
Updated
A high-quality vascular-device franchise with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record, a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins trades about 12% below the analyst consensus target with a favorable risk/reward; the primary near-term risk is a price pullback that, per the data, has not yet been confirmed as a trend reversal.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins versus peers — quality characteristics that compound over time and justify a sustained premium to the sector. Quality breakdown | Gross margin remains above 50% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide moat in a niche surgical-device category depends on continued clinical adoption; a competitive entrant or a shift in surgical technique toward less-invasive alternatives could erode the moat faster than the current quality score implies. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of beating consensus EPS estimates — with an average positive surprise of 11.17% — demonstrate consistent operational execution and suggest management is setting guidance with a meaningful buffer above expected performance. Catalyst track record | The company beats consensus EPS estimates for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect four-quarter streak can create an elevated expectations bar; if a biologic-product supply disruption or a softer surgical procedure quarter causes even a modest miss, the re-rating could be sharp given the premium multiple the streak sustains. | ||
Biologic products represent 53% of revenue as flagged in risk disclosures, creating a meaningful single-category dependency; a regulatory, manufacturing, or demand disruption in this segment would have an outsized impact on total revenue. Bear case | Biologic product revenue concentration falls below 45% of total sales as new product lines contribute a larger share over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 53% revenue contribution from a single category can reflect a durable competitive strength in that category rather than fragility; if the biologic segment itself continues to grow, the concentration may be a feature rather than a flaw. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins versus peers — quality characteristics that compound over time and justify a sustained premium to the sector.
→Stable- Expectation
- Gross margin remains above 50% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next four reported quarters.
CounterA wide moat in a niche surgical-device category depends on continued clinical adoption; a competitive entrant or a shift in surgical technique toward less-invasive alternatives could erode the moat faster than the current quality score implies.
Four consecutive quarters of beating consensus EPS estimates — with an average positive surprise of 11.17% — demonstrate consistent operational execution and suggest management is setting guidance with a meaningful buffer above expected performance.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%.
CounterA perfect four-quarter streak can create an elevated expectations bar; if a biologic-product supply disruption or a softer surgical procedure quarter causes even a modest miss, the re-rating could be sharp given the premium multiple the streak sustains.
Biologic products represent 53% of revenue as flagged in risk disclosures, creating a meaningful single-category dependency; a regulatory, manufacturing, or demand disruption in this segment would have an outsized impact on total revenue.
→Stable- Expectation
- Biologic product revenue concentration falls below 45% of total sales as new product lines contribute a larger share over the next 4 quarters.
CounterA 53% revenue contribution from a single category can reflect a durable competitive strength in that category rather than fragility; if the biologic segment itself continues to grow, the concentration may be a feature rather than a flaw.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
The price currently sits below its 200-day moving average, yet the moving average slope remains positive at +1.6% over 30 days — consistent with a pullback within an ongoing uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, leaving the technical setup in a watchful, not defensive, posture.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months while the MA slope stays above 0%, confirming the pullback has resolved.
CounterPullbacks that persist long enough can cause the moving average slope to flatten and eventually turn negative; if momentum continues to deteriorate — particularly given the elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 — what reads as a pullback today could become a sustained trend reversal.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four consecutive quarters of beating consensus EPS estimates — with an average positive surprise of 11.17% — demonstrate consistent operational execution and suggest management is setting guidance with a meaningful buffer above expected performance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P2The business carries a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and best-in-class margins versus peers — quality characteristics that compound over time and justify a sustained premium to the sector.
Trip ifGross margin falls below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Biologic products represent 53% of revenue as flagged in risk disclosures, creating a meaningful single-category dependency; a regulatory, manufacturing, or demand disruption in this segment would have an outsized impact on total revenue.
Trip ifBiologic product revenue concentration rises above 60% of total sales as disclosed in a quarterly filing.
- P4The price currently sits below its 200-day moving average, yet the moving average slope remains positive at +1.6% over 30 days — consistent with a pullback within an ongoing uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, leaving the technical setup in a watchful, not defensive, posture.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns negative (below 0% over a 30-day window) and price remains below the 200-day moving average for 6 consecutive weeks.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. (LMAT) is HOLD_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.8/10 at $95.49. None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) cleared their gates — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals rather than directional conviction.
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (4/4); High-quality business; Strong growth profile. On the bear side: Concentration risk — Product: biologic products (53.0%); Concentration risk — Product: open surgical procedure devices; Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Active engine warnings: V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot.
The engine is not issuing fresh-money entry targets at the current verdict. The technical entry zone is around — with a technical stop near $89.13 for existing positions. Asymmetric R:R is 1.33, below the threshold (≥2.0) at which the engine would actively flag fresh capital. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
HOLD flips toward BUY_WAIT if reward-to-risk at 1.2 vs threshold 1.5 clears AND a co-confirming gate triggers. HOLD flips toward SELL if any of the currently-passing gates drop below threshold OR three or more dimensions fall below 4 simultaneously.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates LMAT — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
- ▸High-quality business
- ▸Strong growth profile
Bear case
- ▸Concentration risk — Product: biologic products (53.0%)
- ▸Concentration risk — Product: open surgical procedure devices
- ▸Thin upside margin: 8.5%