Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.91
LIVN · Why this verdict
Why LivaNova (LIVN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A wide economic moat, free cash flow that converts at 185% of net income, four consecutive earnings beats, and a strong technical breakout establish high underlying quality — but the stock has already moved above the near-term resistance target, and at the current price the reward-to-risk ratio is negative, leaving no attractive entry point for new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company operates with an acknowledged wide economic moat and converts free cash flow at 185% of net income — meaning cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings — a combination that historically supports durable compounding across full business cycles. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income in each of the next two annual reports, validating the structural cash generation advantage. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow exceeding net income by a wide margin can reflect one-time working capital releases or deferred liabilities that normalize in future periods; if conversion reverts toward 100%, the apparent cash advantage diminishes significantly. | ||
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 14% reflect a management team that has consistently delivered above its guided range, building a track record of under-promising and over-delivering across varied operating conditions. Catalyst breakdown | EPS surprise remains positive for each of the next four reported quarters, extending the unbroken beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprises of 14% in a medical device business could reflect deliberately conservative guidance; if the company resets guidance upward in response to analyst pressure, sustaining the beat streak becomes structurally harder as the estimate bar rises. | ||
A golden cross formation, bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and RSI at 62 signal a technically constructive environment where price momentum is reinforcing the fundamental quality picture — a configuration associated with continued near-term price strength. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to trend upward for 12 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is within 1.6% of its 52-week high, meaning the breakout may be maturing; early technical buyers could take profits just above the current price, creating resistance that limits near-term upside. | ||
The stock has already moved above the near-term resistance target, and the reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is negative — even with a high-quality underlying business, the current price level does not justify new capital deployment. Price targets | A pullback creates at least 8% upside to the next resistance target from the new lower entry level, restoring a positive reward-to-risk ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide moat business that has broken above resistance can continue to extend; near-term target levels are not hard ceilings, and institutional investors may continue to add if fundamental catalysts — such as another earnings beat — emerge near the current price. | ||
The company operates with an acknowledged wide economic moat and converts free cash flow at 185% of net income — meaning cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings — a combination that historically supports durable compounding across full business cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income in each of the next two annual reports, validating the structural cash generation advantage.
CounterFree cash flow exceeding net income by a wide margin can reflect one-time working capital releases or deferred liabilities that normalize in future periods; if conversion reverts toward 100%, the apparent cash advantage diminishes significantly.
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 14% reflect a management team that has consistently delivered above its guided range, building a track record of under-promising and over-delivering across varied operating conditions.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for each of the next four reported quarters, extending the unbroken beat streak.
CounterAverage surprises of 14% in a medical device business could reflect deliberately conservative guidance; if the company resets guidance upward in response to analyst pressure, sustaining the beat streak becomes structurally harder as the estimate bar rises.
A golden cross formation, bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and RSI at 62 signal a technically constructive environment where price momentum is reinforcing the fundamental quality picture — a configuration associated with continued near-term price strength.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to trend upward for 12 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe stock is within 1.6% of its 52-week high, meaning the breakout may be maturing; early technical buyers could take profits just above the current price, creating resistance that limits near-term upside.
The stock has already moved above the near-term resistance target, and the reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is negative — even with a high-quality underlying business, the current price level does not justify new capital deployment.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback creates at least 8% upside to the next resistance target from the new lower entry level, restoring a positive reward-to-risk ratio.
CounterA wide moat business that has broken above resistance can continue to extend; near-term target levels are not hard ceilings, and institutional investors may continue to add if fundamental catalysts — such as another earnings beat — emerge near the current price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Op margin | 5.8 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 185% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $136,350 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.73
- ▸Above max pain $52
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $81.27 has reached target $80.08. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-12.8%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Catalyst at 6.9; weakest: Technical at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.9, Sentiment at 6.7, and Insider at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Peer rank at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company operates with an acknowledged wide economic moat and converts free cash flow at 185% of net income — meaning cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings — a combination that historically supports durable compounding across full business cycles.
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive annual periods, indicating the cash conversion advantage has normalized.
- P2Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 14% reflect a management team that has consistently delivered above its guided range, building a track record of under-promising and over-delivering across varied operating conditions.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P3A golden cross formation, bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and RSI at 62 signal a technically constructive environment where price momentum is reinforcing the fundamental quality picture — a configuration associated with continued near-term price strength.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks, invalidating the breakout.
- P4The stock has already moved above the near-term resistance target, and the reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is negative — even with a high-quality underlying business, the current price level does not justify new capital deployment.
Trip ifStock pulls back to create upside of more than 8% to a resistance target, restoring a positive reward-to-risk ratio and a favorable entry opportunity.