Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.41
- ▸Attractively valued
INTA · Why this verdict
Why Intapp (INTA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Intapp's business quality scores 3.8 out of 10, just below the 4.0 minimum floor required to support a position, while a confirmed technical downtrend constitutes a firm barrier to new entries; the positive free cash flow profile — 26% FCF margin and 8.1% FCF yield despite GAAP losses — and 46% analyst-implied upside represent genuine potential that cannot outweigh the current quality and momentum barriers without demonstrated fundamental improvement.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst consensus implies 46% upside to the price target of $29.33 from the current $23.09, reflecting fundamental recognition of the business's cash flow and growth profile that current technical and quality headwinds are suppressing. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus target remaining above $29.00 over the next 12 months would validate that the fundamental case is intact even while constraints delay entry. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the consensus target is cut below $25.00, implied upside shrinks from 46% to less than 10%, materially weakening the case that current prices represent a compelling value even for patient holders. | ||
Business quality scores 3.8 out of 10, just below the 4.0 minimum floor; the shortfall reflects negative returns on equity and assets, absence of GAAP operating income, and a Piotroski F-Score that trails high-quality peers — collectively indicating below-average financial health at current margins. Quality | Operating income turning positive for 2 consecutive quarters would signal meaningful quality improvement and move the business toward the minimum threshold needed to support a position. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business generates a 26% FCF margin and 8.1% FCF yield despite GAAP losses; GAAP accounting for software companies can depress reported quality metrics even when underlying cash economics are sound. | ||
A 26% free cash flow margin and 8.1% FCF yield despite GAAP losses demonstrate that the accounting framework obscures real cash generation; cash economics are meaningfully better than reported profitability would suggest. Quality breakdown | FCF margin remaining above 20% for 2 consecutive quarters would confirm that positive cash generation is sustainable and not a timing artifact. | →Stable |
| CounterIf FCF margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, the gap between GAAP losses and cash reality narrows materially, removing the primary differentiator between accounting weakness and underlying business quality. | ||
A confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at -7.7% per 30 days constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries; the pattern holds even though MACD is improving and RSI has recovered to 63. Engine gate (failed) | Price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks would formally clear the technical barrier and reopen the entry gate. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry of 1.8-to-1 (27% upside to 15% downside) passed its minimum gate, and MACD is recovering; if momentum continues, the technical recovery could arrive within one or two quarters. | ||
The past four quarters produced one beat, two in-line results, and one miss (a -67.8% surprise), with the average quarterly surprise negative at -9.4%; this inconsistency signals unreliable earnings predictability and leaves no consistent beat catalyst to close the gap to analyst targets. Earnings | EPS surprises averaging above 0% over 4 consecutive quarters would establish the consistency needed to support a fundamental re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent quarters were in-line or better, and the sharp earlier miss may reflect a one-time estimate calibration issue rather than a structural forecasting problem. | ||
The analyst consensus implies 46% upside to the price target of $29.33 from the current $23.09, reflecting fundamental recognition of the business's cash flow and growth profile that current technical and quality headwinds are suppressing.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target remaining above $29.00 over the next 12 months would validate that the fundamental case is intact even while constraints delay entry.
CounterIf the consensus target is cut below $25.00, implied upside shrinks from 46% to less than 10%, materially weakening the case that current prices represent a compelling value even for patient holders.
Business quality scores 3.8 out of 10, just below the 4.0 minimum floor; the shortfall reflects negative returns on equity and assets, absence of GAAP operating income, and a Piotroski F-Score that trails high-quality peers — collectively indicating below-average financial health at current margins.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Operating income turning positive for 2 consecutive quarters would signal meaningful quality improvement and move the business toward the minimum threshold needed to support a position.
CounterThe business generates a 26% FCF margin and 8.1% FCF yield despite GAAP losses; GAAP accounting for software companies can depress reported quality metrics even when underlying cash economics are sound.
A 26% free cash flow margin and 8.1% FCF yield despite GAAP losses demonstrate that the accounting framework obscures real cash generation; cash economics are meaningfully better than reported profitability would suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin remaining above 20% for 2 consecutive quarters would confirm that positive cash generation is sustainable and not a timing artifact.
CounterIf FCF margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, the gap between GAAP losses and cash reality narrows materially, removing the primary differentiator between accounting weakness and underlying business quality.
A confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at -7.7% per 30 days constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries; the pattern holds even though MACD is improving and RSI has recovered to 63.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks would formally clear the technical barrier and reopen the entry gate.
CounterThe asymmetry of 1.8-to-1 (27% upside to 15% downside) passed its minimum gate, and MACD is recovering; if momentum continues, the technical recovery could arrive within one or two quarters.
The past four quarters produced one beat, two in-line results, and one miss (a -67.8% surprise), with the average quarterly surprise negative at -9.4%; this inconsistency signals unreliable earnings predictability and leaves no consistent beat catalyst to close the gap to analyst targets.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprises averaging above 0% over 4 consecutive quarters would establish the consistency needed to support a fundamental re-rating.
CounterThe two most recent quarters were in-line or better, and the sharp earlier miss may reflect a one-time estimate calibration issue rather than a structural forecasting problem.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 26%, FCF yield 8.2%)
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 5.5 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.7 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.98
Upside
+29.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Peer rank at 3.3, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Business quality scores 3.8 out of 10, just below the 4.0 minimum floor; the shortfall reflects negative returns on equity and assets, absence of GAAP operating income, and a Piotroski F-Score that trails high-quality peers — collectively indicating below-average financial health at current margins.
Trip ifOperating income rises above $0 for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling quality improvement toward the minimum 4.0 threshold.
- P2A 26% free cash flow margin and 8.1% FCF yield despite GAAP losses demonstrate that the accounting framework obscures real cash generation; cash economics are meaningfully better than reported profitability would suggest.
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, undermining the cash-generation thesis.
- P3A confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at -7.7% per 30 days constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries; the pattern holds even though MACD is improving and RSI has recovered to 63.
Trip ifPrice reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, formally clearing the technical barrier.
- P4The analyst consensus implies 46% upside to the price target of $29.33 from the current $23.09, reflecting fundamental recognition of the business's cash flow and growth profile that current technical and quality headwinds are suppressing.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $25.00, reducing implied upside below 10% from the current price of $23.09.
- P5The past four quarters produced one beat, two in-line results, and one miss (a -67.8% surprise), with the average quarterly surprise negative at -9.4%; this inconsistency signals unreliable earnings predictability and leaves no consistent beat catalyst to close the gap to analyst targets.
Trip ifEPS surprises average above 0% over 4 consecutive quarters, establishing a consistent positive beat pattern.