Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
IFS · Why this verdict
Why Intercorp Financial Services In (IFS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company is delivering approximately 25% year-over-year earnings growth at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.3x with a PEG ratio of 0.22, has beaten consensus in three of the last four quarters with average positive surprises of 16%, and trades at a notable discount to peers on both valuation and return metrics — a strong fundamental profile undercut primarily by the stock's proximity to its near-term resistance target and the recent downward trend in forward estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue and earnings are growing at approximately 25% year-over-year while the forward price-to-earnings multiple sits at 8.3x with a PEG ratio of 0.22 — a combination that screens as materially undervalued relative to the company's growth rate and suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the earnings trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth sustains above 15% year-over-year for four consecutive quarters, validating that the strong growth profile is durable rather than a one-period event. | →Stable |
| CounterA 25% growth rate in a regional banking business can compress quickly when credit quality cycles turn, regulatory requirements tighten, or net interest margins narrow; a deceleration to single-digit growth would substantially reduce the justification for the current valuation premium over the peer group. | ||
The stock screens as one of the more attractively valued names in its peer group on both a price-to-earnings and return-on-equity basis, offering investors access to above-average profitability at a below-average multiple — a peer-relative setup associated historically with outperformance when the business continues to deliver. Peer-rank breakdown | The company's valuation discount to peers narrows as the market re-rates the stock toward the peer average, implying price appreciation even without earnings growth acceleration. | →Stable |
| CounterA persistent valuation discount to peers can reflect embedded country or currency risk, governance considerations, or liquidity constraints that are structurally embedded in the investment case and may not resolve regardless of earnings quality. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 16% — including a 33% beat in one quarter — a track record suggesting the business is consistently performing well above what analysts have modeled. Earnings | EPS surprises remain positive in both of the next two reported quarters, extending the pattern of execution above consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterWith forward earnings estimates already trending lower, the base against which future beats are measured is declining; a narrower beat (e.g., 3-5% surprise) against a cut number provides a much weaker signal than the 16-33% surprises recorded against higher prior estimates. | ||
With the share price less than 2.5% below its analyst consensus resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.34-to-1, the setup offers minimal room for error for new buyers — particularly with forward earnings estimates trending lower, which limits the catalyst for the target revision that would restore meaningful upside. Price targets | Analyst consensus price target rises above $65, creating more than 18% potential upside from current levels and restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks with genuine earnings momentum often trade through resistance levels and force upward analyst target revisions; if the strong beat streak continues, the current proximity to the target may simply trigger a new, higher estimate rather than acting as a ceiling. | ||
Revenue and earnings are growing at approximately 25% year-over-year while the forward price-to-earnings multiple sits at 8.3x with a PEG ratio of 0.22 — a combination that screens as materially undervalued relative to the company's growth rate and suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the earnings trajectory.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth sustains above 15% year-over-year for four consecutive quarters, validating that the strong growth profile is durable rather than a one-period event.
CounterA 25% growth rate in a regional banking business can compress quickly when credit quality cycles turn, regulatory requirements tighten, or net interest margins narrow; a deceleration to single-digit growth would substantially reduce the justification for the current valuation premium over the peer group.
The stock screens as one of the more attractively valued names in its peer group on both a price-to-earnings and return-on-equity basis, offering investors access to above-average profitability at a below-average multiple — a peer-relative setup associated historically with outperformance when the business continues to deliver.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The company's valuation discount to peers narrows as the market re-rates the stock toward the peer average, implying price appreciation even without earnings growth acceleration.
CounterA persistent valuation discount to peers can reflect embedded country or currency risk, governance considerations, or liquidity constraints that are structurally embedded in the investment case and may not resolve regardless of earnings quality.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 16% — including a 33% beat in one quarter — a track record suggesting the business is consistently performing well above what analysts have modeled.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprises remain positive in both of the next two reported quarters, extending the pattern of execution above consensus.
CounterWith forward earnings estimates already trending lower, the base against which future beats are measured is declining; a narrower beat (e.g., 3-5% surprise) against a cut number provides a much weaker signal than the 16-33% surprises recorded against higher prior estimates.
With the share price less than 2.5% below its analyst consensus resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.34-to-1, the setup offers minimal room for error for new buyers — particularly with forward earnings estimates trending lower, which limits the catalyst for the target revision that would restore meaningful upside.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $65, creating more than 18% potential upside from current levels and restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.
CounterStocks with genuine earnings momentum often trade through resistance levels and force upward analyst target revisions; if the strong beat streak continues, the current proximity to the target may simply trigger a new, higher estimate rather than acting as a ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
| EPS growth | 9.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $10,746 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| beta | 9.7 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 328.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:48d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.10
Upside
+1.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.1; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Value at 8.6, and Peer rank at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue and earnings are growing at approximately 25% year-over-year while the forward price-to-earnings multiple sits at 8.3x with a PEG ratio of 0.22 — a combination that screens as materially undervalued relative to the company's growth rate and suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the earnings trajectory.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 16% — including a 33% beat in one quarter — a track record suggesting the business is consistently performing well above what analysts have modeled.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The stock screens as one of the more attractively valued names in its peer group on both a price-to-earnings and return-on-equity basis, offering investors access to above-average profitability at a below-average multiple — a peer-relative setup associated historically with outperformance when the business continues to deliver.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15x, eliminating the current valuation discount to peers.
- P4With the share price less than 2.5% below its analyst consensus resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.34-to-1, the setup offers minimal room for error for new buyers — particularly with forward earnings estimates trending lower, which limits the catalyst for the target revision that would restore meaningful upside.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $65, creating more than 18% upside from current levels.