Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
IDT · Why this verdict
Why IDT (IDT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IDT Corporation offers an attractively valued setup — forward P/E of 13.4x, PEG under 1.0, and three consecutive earnings beats — but the favorable fundamental case is clouded by failed price momentum, distributing volume, and an options market carrying nearly three times as much put as call exposure; the setup favors patience until momentum confirms the thesis.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 13.4x and a PEG of 0.63, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with the analyst consensus implying roughly 21% upside — a meaningful gap that the current price has not reflected. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes at least half the 21% gap to the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as the valuation re-rates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio of 42% signals that reported earnings are only partially converting into cash, which justifies a valuation discount relative to earnings-based multiples and may limit how far the multiple re-rates. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the three most recent prints all coming in ahead of consensus — a pattern suggesting the earnings trajectory is reliably ahead of sell-side expectations going into the next reporting cycle. Earnings | A fourth consecutive positive EPS surprise is delivered at the next reported quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the sequence was a large negative surprise of 26%, demonstrating the business can produce materially weak quarters; the average surprise across all four periods is slightly negative, which dilutes the case for systematic outperformance. | ||
Price momentum has failed the threshold needed for a constructive setup — volume is distributing (falling accumulation trend), the moving-average slope is flat, and the directional indicator is bearish — increasing the risk that the valuation gap widens before it closes. Momentum breakdown | Price closes above $60.00 for 3 consecutive sessions while volume resumes net accumulation, confirming buyers have returned with conviction. | →Stable |
| CounterA flat moving average and muted momentum can represent a basing pattern before re-acceleration; with more than 100 days until the next earnings date, the stock has ample time to stabilize and build a base before the next fundamental catalyst. | ||
The put/call ratio of 2.80 signals that options market participants are positioning for downside at nearly three times the rate they are positioning for upside — a meaningful contrary signal when the bull case rests on multiple expansion from a value trough. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls below 1.00 within 60 days, indicating the bearish hedging has unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in small-cap names frequently represent hedging by long shareholders rather than directional bets; a strong earnings quarter could trigger a rapid unwind of the bearish positioning and amplify any upward move. | ||
At a forward P/E of 13.4x and a PEG of 0.63, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with the analyst consensus implying roughly 21% upside — a meaningful gap that the current price has not reflected.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least half the 21% gap to the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as the valuation re-rates.
CounterThe free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio of 42% signals that reported earnings are only partially converting into cash, which justifies a valuation discount relative to earnings-based multiples and may limit how far the multiple re-rates.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the three most recent prints all coming in ahead of consensus — a pattern suggesting the earnings trajectory is reliably ahead of sell-side expectations going into the next reporting cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- A fourth consecutive positive EPS surprise is delivered at the next reported quarter.
CounterThe one miss in the sequence was a large negative surprise of 26%, demonstrating the business can produce materially weak quarters; the average surprise across all four periods is slightly negative, which dilutes the case for systematic outperformance.
Price momentum has failed the threshold needed for a constructive setup — volume is distributing (falling accumulation trend), the moving-average slope is flat, and the directional indicator is bearish — increasing the risk that the valuation gap widens before it closes.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes above $60.00 for 3 consecutive sessions while volume resumes net accumulation, confirming buyers have returned with conviction.
CounterA flat moving average and muted momentum can represent a basing pattern before re-acceleration; with more than 100 days until the next earnings date, the stock has ample time to stabilize and build a base before the next fundamental catalyst.
The put/call ratio of 2.80 signals that options market participants are positioning for downside at nearly three times the rate they are positioning for upside — a meaningful contrary signal when the bull case rests on multiple expansion from a value trough.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.00 within 60 days, indicating the bearish hedging has unwound.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in small-cap names frequently represent hedging by long shareholders rather than directional bets; a strong earnings quarter could trigger a rapid unwind of the bearish positioning and amplify any upward move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.4 |
| ROA | 7.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 42% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,595,882 (0.115% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 47.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:96d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.21
Upside
+15.5%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.7, and Catalyst at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a forward P/E of 13.4x and a PEG of 0.63, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with the analyst consensus implying roughly 21% upside — a meaningful gap that the current price has not reflected.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 20x for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the valuation discount has closed and the stock is no longer attractively priced.
- P2The company has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the three most recent prints all coming in ahead of consensus — a pattern suggesting the earnings trajectory is reliably ahead of sell-side expectations going into the next reporting cycle.
Trip ifEPS misses consensus by more than 5% in 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
- P3Price momentum has failed the threshold needed for a constructive setup — volume is distributing (falling accumulation trend), the moving-average slope is flat, and the directional indicator is bearish — increasing the risk that the valuation gap widens before it closes.
Trip ifPrice closes above $60.00 for 3 consecutive sessions with OBV resuming net accumulation, falsifying the distributional momentum pattern.
- P4The put/call ratio of 2.80 signals that options market participants are positioning for downside at nearly three times the rate they are positioning for upside — a meaningful contrary signal when the bull case rests on multiple expansion from a value trough.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.00 for 2 consecutive weeks, indicating the bearish options positioning has fully unwound.