Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
HURN · Why this verdict
Why Huron Consulting Group (HURN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Huron Consulting screens as deeply undervalued on growth-adjusted metrics with a four-quarter beat streak and 46% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed price downtrend and elevated leverage have blocked the near-term entry — the setup rewards patience while technical repair unfolds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap begins to close as the forward multiple re-rates toward 15x over the next 12 months, supported by continued earnings beats. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG can reflect thin analyst coverage — with only 4 active analysts — and the risk that estimates are set too optimistically; if the 72% analyst upside target is revised lower as coverage broadens, the gap may be smaller than it currently appears. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds. Earnings | Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with average surprise staying above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed the smallest beat in the trailing run (just under 8%); if leverage at 2.2x debt-to-equity constrains operational flexibility during a softer revenue quarter, the cadence could break precisely when the stock most needs it. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is resolved when the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions and the slope of that average turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterInternal momentum is already improving — the MACD is rising and RSI is at 56 (neither oversold nor overextended) — suggesting price may be turning before the moving average crossover completes, potentially accelerating the recovery. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback. Bear case | Leverage concern eases if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet is otherwise sound on most accounting dimensions, and strong liquidity metrics suggest debt service is manageable at current levels. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap begins to close as the forward multiple re-rates toward 15x over the next 12 months, supported by continued earnings beats.
CounterA very low PEG can reflect thin analyst coverage — with only 4 active analysts — and the risk that estimates are set too optimistically; if the 72% analyst upside target is revised lower as coverage broadens, the gap may be smaller than it currently appears.
Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with average surprise staying above 5%.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed the smallest beat in the trailing run (just under 8%); if leverage at 2.2x debt-to-equity constrains operational flexibility during a softer revenue quarter, the cadence could break precisely when the stock most needs it.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is resolved when the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions and the slope of that average turns positive.
CounterInternal momentum is already improving — the MACD is rising and RSI is at 56 (neither oversold nor overextended) — suggesting price may be turning before the moving average crossover completes, potentially accelerating the recovery.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Leverage concern eases if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x over the next 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet is otherwise sound on most accounting dimensions, and strong liquidity metrics suggest debt service is manageable at current levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 92%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $481,958 (0.031% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.56
Upside
+63.4%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.56 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Growth at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Insider at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation gap has been substantially closed.
- P2Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time.
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading sessions.
- P4A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x.