Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
GMED · Why this verdict
Why Globus Medical (GMED) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Strong 27% revenue growth, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging nearly 25% upside surprise, and a 4-to-1 favorable risk/reward combine to make a compelling long-side case, with the primary watch items being a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5 and a current momentum headwind while the longer-term trend remains intact.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With revenue growing at 27% year over year, best-in-class margins relative to peers, and the strongest growth ranking in its peer cohort, the company is compounding its revenue base at an above-market rate that justifies a premium to sector multiples. Growth | The growth thesis holds if revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for the next 2 quarters and margins remain near current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterThe balance sheet carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5, flagged as a leverage penalty; the leverage introduces a direct drag on returns and means any deceleration in top-line growth would amplify the cost of capital headwind and put pressure on the premium multiple more quickly than a debt-light business would experience. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average upside surprise of nearly 25% — including a 51% beat in the November 2025 quarter — indicate disciplined guidance management and a consistent ability to exceed expectations across multiple business conditions. Earnings | Thesis holds if the company posts a fifth consecutive positive earnings surprise in the August 2026 reporting quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.86 indicates that options market participants are positioned heavily for downside ahead of the next print; that degree of hedging is unusual when the beat trend is intact and may reflect institutional concern about the leverage overhang or a potential deceleration in the growth rate. | ||
With 23.8% upside to the analyst consensus target at $95.70 and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.2-to-1, the current setup is materially asymmetric in favor of buyers who are willing to absorb a near-term momentum headwind while waiting for the longer-term uptrend to reassert itself. Price targets | Thesis holds if the stock reaches the $95.70 analyst consensus target within 12 months without requiring a material target revision. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum score of 3.6 sits below the minimum gate of 4.5 with mixed technical signals and no clear chart pattern; the favorable asymmetry is attractive in theory but the market may not re-rate until a concrete catalyst — such as the next earnings print — resolves the momentum drag. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5, flagged as a leverage penalty in the risk assessment, and free cash flow converts at approximately 58% of net income — a level that warrants monitoring to ensure debt service does not constrain reinvestment capacity as the business scales. Bear case | The leverage concern diminishes if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 2.0 and free cash flow conversion rises above 75% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe strong 27% revenue growth rate, best-in-class margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 all confirm that the financial base is broad and growing; the elevated leverage may be serviceable given the income profile, and the overall quality score of 7.2 demonstrates the business retains meaningful financial health despite the balance sheet structure. | ||
With revenue growing at 27% year over year, best-in-class margins relative to peers, and the strongest growth ranking in its peer cohort, the company is compounding its revenue base at an above-market rate that justifies a premium to sector multiples.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- The growth thesis holds if revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for the next 2 quarters and margins remain near current levels.
CounterThe balance sheet carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5, flagged as a leverage penalty; the leverage introduces a direct drag on returns and means any deceleration in top-line growth would amplify the cost of capital headwind and put pressure on the premium multiple more quickly than a debt-light business would experience.
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average upside surprise of nearly 25% — including a 51% beat in the November 2025 quarter — indicate disciplined guidance management and a consistent ability to exceed expectations across multiple business conditions.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Thesis holds if the company posts a fifth consecutive positive earnings surprise in the August 2026 reporting quarter.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.86 indicates that options market participants are positioned heavily for downside ahead of the next print; that degree of hedging is unusual when the beat trend is intact and may reflect institutional concern about the leverage overhang or a potential deceleration in the growth rate.
With 23.8% upside to the analyst consensus target at $95.70 and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.2-to-1, the current setup is materially asymmetric in favor of buyers who are willing to absorb a near-term momentum headwind while waiting for the longer-term uptrend to reassert itself.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Thesis holds if the stock reaches the $95.70 analyst consensus target within 12 months without requiring a material target revision.
CounterThe momentum score of 3.6 sits below the minimum gate of 4.5 with mixed technical signals and no clear chart pattern; the favorable asymmetry is attractive in theory but the market may not re-rate until a concrete catalyst — such as the next earnings print — resolves the momentum drag.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5, flagged as a leverage penalty in the risk assessment, and free cash flow converts at approximately 58% of net income — a level that warrants monitoring to ensure debt service does not constrain reinvestment capacity as the business scales.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The leverage concern diminishes if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 2.0 and free cash flow conversion rises above 75% over the next four quarters.
CounterThe strong 27% revenue growth rate, best-in-class margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 all confirm that the financial base is broad and growing; the elevated leverage may be serviceable given the income profile, and the overall quality score of 7.2 demonstrates the business retains meaningful financial health despite the balance sheet structure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 58% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,019,072 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 2.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.13
Upside
+12.5%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Technical at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Peer rank at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Insider at 5.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average upside surprise of nearly 25% — including a 51% beat in the November 2025 quarter — indicate disciplined guidance management and a consistent ability to exceed expectations across multiple business conditions.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the August 2026 quarterly print, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2With revenue growing at 27% year over year, best-in-class margins relative to peers, and the strongest growth ranking in its peer cohort, the company is compounding its revenue base at an above-market rate that justifies a premium to sector multiples.
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 10% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, representing a reduction of more than 17 percentage points from the current 27% rate.
- P3With 23.8% upside to the analyst consensus target at $95.70 and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.2-to-1, the current setup is materially asymmetric in favor of buyers who are willing to absorb a near-term momentum headwind while waiting for the longer-term uptrend to reassert itself.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised below $80, reducing upside below 4% from the current price of $77.32.
- P4The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5, flagged as a leverage penalty in the risk assessment, and free cash flow converts at approximately 58% of net income — a level that warrants monitoring to ensure debt service does not constrain reinvestment capacity as the business scales.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 30% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the leverage drag is materially eroding cash generation relative to reported earnings.