Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.35
- ▸Attractively valued
GM · Why this verdict
Why General Motors (GM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GM screens inexpensively on earnings multiples but business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold, the franchise is heavily concentrated in North American internal combustion vehicles, and with only about 1.5% headroom to the analyst consensus target the risk/reward is approximately 0.1-to-1 — conditions that collectively argue against new capital deployment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no discernible competitive moat, the business falls well below the minimum quality threshold — two signals that together suggest the company lacks both near-term financial breadth and long-term pricing power. Warnings | The thesis holds if the Piotroski F-Score remains at or below 4 for the next two reporting periods with no evidence of sustained margin improvement. | →Stable |
| CounterThe exceptional free cash flow conversion — running near 900% of reported net income — demonstrates that real cash generation is far stronger than accounting quality metrics imply; a sustained buyback program funded by that cash could support the share price even absent a formal quality recovery. | ||
With only about 1.5% headroom to the analyst consensus target while the defined downside is approximately 15 times larger, the risk/reward at current prices is roughly 0.1-to-1 — a deeply unfavorable setup that offers no margin of safety for new entry. V9 | The setup becomes viable only if the analyst price target is revised materially higher or the stock pulls back enough to create upside above 10% from the consensus level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a 40% earnings beat, and three of the last four prints exceeded estimates; if this momentum carries into the next report, analysts could revise their targets upward and restore a more favorable risk/reward without requiring a price decline. | ||
At a forward earnings multiple of 6 times and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.37, the stock appears inexpensive by several conventional measures; however, the low price reflects structurally impaired underlying business quality rather than an unrecognized discount that multiple expansion alone is likely to unlock. Value | The valuation case remains unresolved unless revenue growth turns consistently positive above 5% and operating metrics show a meaningful, sustained recovery over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion running near 900% of reported earnings provides a substantial real-cash base that could fund aggressive capital returns, potentially attracting income-oriented buyers and causing the multiple to re-rate even without any improvement in underlying quality metrics. | ||
With over 86% of revenues generated in North America and the product franchise concentrated in full-size internal combustion SUVs and pickup trucks, the business is acutely exposed to a single regional demand shock or a regulatory acceleration that shifts consumer or fleet demand away from ICE powertrains. Bear case | Concentration risk diminishes if revenue generated outside North America rises above 20% of total, or if electrified products account for more than 15% of unit volume, within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation signals (rising On-Balance Volume) and a momentum score above the minimum gate suggest that institutional buyers continue to see value in the current product mix, which may prove more durable than the geographic and product concentration warnings imply. | ||
With a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no discernible competitive moat, the business falls well below the minimum quality threshold — two signals that together suggest the company lacks both near-term financial breadth and long-term pricing power.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The thesis holds if the Piotroski F-Score remains at or below 4 for the next two reporting periods with no evidence of sustained margin improvement.
CounterThe exceptional free cash flow conversion — running near 900% of reported net income — demonstrates that real cash generation is far stronger than accounting quality metrics imply; a sustained buyback program funded by that cash could support the share price even absent a formal quality recovery.
With only about 1.5% headroom to the analyst consensus target while the defined downside is approximately 15 times larger, the risk/reward at current prices is roughly 0.1-to-1 — a deeply unfavorable setup that offers no margin of safety for new entry.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The setup becomes viable only if the analyst price target is revised materially higher or the stock pulls back enough to create upside above 10% from the consensus level.
CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a 40% earnings beat, and three of the last four prints exceeded estimates; if this momentum carries into the next report, analysts could revise their targets upward and restore a more favorable risk/reward without requiring a price decline.
At a forward earnings multiple of 6 times and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.37, the stock appears inexpensive by several conventional measures; however, the low price reflects structurally impaired underlying business quality rather than an unrecognized discount that multiple expansion alone is likely to unlock.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- The valuation case remains unresolved unless revenue growth turns consistently positive above 5% and operating metrics show a meaningful, sustained recovery over the next four quarters.
CounterFree cash flow conversion running near 900% of reported earnings provides a substantial real-cash base that could fund aggressive capital returns, potentially attracting income-oriented buyers and causing the multiple to re-rate even without any improvement in underlying quality metrics.
With over 86% of revenues generated in North America and the product franchise concentrated in full-size internal combustion SUVs and pickup trucks, the business is acutely exposed to a single regional demand shock or a regulatory acceleration that shifts consumer or fleet demand away from ICE powertrains.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration risk diminishes if revenue generated outside North America rises above 20% of total, or if electrified products account for more than 15% of unit volume, within 12 months.
CounterVolume accumulation signals (rising On-Balance Volume) and a momentum score above the minimum gate suggest that institutional buyers continue to see value in the current product mix, which may prove more durable than the geographic and product concentration warnings imply.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 884% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $52,507,338 (0.074% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.5 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $50
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 91.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.94
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Technical at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Quality at 3.2, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a forward earnings multiple of 6 times and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.37, the stock appears inexpensive by several conventional measures; however, the low price reflects structurally impaired underlying business quality rather than an unrecognized discount that multiple expansion alone is likely to unlock.
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive above 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the fundamental deterioration reflected in the cheap multiple has reversed.
- P2With a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no discernible competitive moat, the business falls well below the minimum quality threshold — two signals that together suggest the company lacks both near-term financial breadth and long-term pricing power.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 7 for 2 consecutive reporting periods, indicating a genuine recovery in financial breadth and operational health.
- P3With over 86% of revenues generated in North America and the product franchise concentrated in full-size internal combustion SUVs and pickup trucks, the business is acutely exposed to a single regional demand shock or a regulatory acceleration that shifts consumer or fleet demand away from ICE powertrains.
Trip ifRevenue generated outside North America rises above 20% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful geographic diversification.
- P4With only about 1.5% headroom to the analyst consensus target while the defined downside is approximately 15 times larger, the risk/reward at current prices is roughly 0.1-to-1 — a deeply unfavorable setup that offers no margin of safety for new entry.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $93, creating upside greater than 10% from the current $84, restoring a risk/reward ratio above 1.0-to-1.