Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 5.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.38
- ▸Attractively valued
ENR · Why this verdict
Why Energizer Holdings (ENR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ENR offers an attractively valued entry — a forward multiple of 5.5x and a 51% margin of safety — alongside a recent earnings beat of more than 100%, but a confirmed death cross, a 200-day moving average declining at -4.6% per month, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.7 make the technical and balance-sheet risks difficult to underwrite at this stage.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with a PEG of 1.29 and a cited margin of safety of 51%, positioning it attractively relative to intrinsic value estimates even as the broader setup remains challenged. Bull case | Margin of safety narrows as the stock re-rates toward fair value over 12 months while earnings estimates hold or improve. | →Stable |
| CounterThe discount may be permanent rather than a mis-pricing: a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.7 applies a structural leverage penalty, and declining revenue at -3% suggests the earnings base supporting that multiple may itself be deteriorating. | ||
The company has beaten consensus in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a surprise of more than 100% — a pattern suggesting the earnings base is more resilient than Street estimates assume. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to four of five quarters with surprise percentages remaining positive over the next two reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior quarter was a miss of nearly 10%, and the outsized recent beat may reflect one-time factors rather than sustained operational improvement; an in-line or miss next quarter would break the streak and likely pressure the stock. | ||
A death cross is in force, the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at -4.6% over 30 days, and volume is in distribution — together constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks new entry on a technical basis. Momentum breakdown | If the thesis is wrong, the stock reclaims the 200-day moving average within two quarters and the moving average slope turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 76 signals the stock is overbought in the near term, suggesting a potential mean-reversion bounce that could mislead buyers into treating a bear-market rally as a trend reversal. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 19.7 applies a material leverage penalty, constraining financial flexibility and compressing the risk/reward to 0.14-to-1 in an unfavorable direction with just 1% headroom to the $20.34 resistance target. Bear case | If this risk is overstated, debt-to-equity falls meaningfully over four consecutive quarters as cash flow is directed toward debt reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterValuation screens attractive precisely because leverage inflates the cost of capital; if the company sustains its earnings trajectory and services debt without incident, the leverage discount may unwind faster than bears expect. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with a PEG of 1.29 and a cited margin of safety of 51%, positioning it attractively relative to intrinsic value estimates even as the broader setup remains challenged.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Margin of safety narrows as the stock re-rates toward fair value over 12 months while earnings estimates hold or improve.
CounterThe discount may be permanent rather than a mis-pricing: a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.7 applies a structural leverage penalty, and declining revenue at -3% suggests the earnings base supporting that multiple may itself be deteriorating.
The company has beaten consensus in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a surprise of more than 100% — a pattern suggesting the earnings base is more resilient than Street estimates assume.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to four of five quarters with surprise percentages remaining positive over the next two reporting periods.
CounterThe prior quarter was a miss of nearly 10%, and the outsized recent beat may reflect one-time factors rather than sustained operational improvement; an in-line or miss next quarter would break the streak and likely pressure the stock.
A death cross is in force, the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at -4.6% over 30 days, and volume is in distribution — together constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks new entry on a technical basis.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If the thesis is wrong, the stock reclaims the 200-day moving average within two quarters and the moving average slope turns positive.
CounterRSI at 76 signals the stock is overbought in the near term, suggesting a potential mean-reversion bounce that could mislead buyers into treating a bear-market rally as a trend reversal.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 19.7 applies a material leverage penalty, constraining financial flexibility and compressing the risk/reward to 0.14-to-1 in an unfavorable direction with just 1% headroom to the $20.34 resistance target.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this risk is overstated, debt-to-equity falls meaningfully over four consecutive quarters as cash flow is directed toward debt reduction.
CounterValuation screens attractive precisely because leverage inflates the cost of capital; if the company sustains its earnings trajectory and services debt without incident, the leverage discount may unwind faster than bears expect.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 127%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 81 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $5,322,088 (0.360% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 556.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.36%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.34
Upside
-20.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:0.36%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.3, Value at 7.2, and Insider at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Technical at 2.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with a PEG of 1.29 and a cited margin of safety of 51%, positioning it attractively relative to intrinsic value estimates even as the broader setup remains challenged.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x as the stock re-rates higher without a proportional increase in earnings estimates, eliminating the valuation discount.
- P2The company has beaten consensus in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a surprise of more than 100% — a pattern suggesting the earnings base is more resilient than Street estimates assume.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3A death cross is in force, the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at -4.6% over 30 days, and volume is in distribution — together constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks new entry on a technical basis.
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions with the moving average slope turning positive.
- P4A debt-to-equity ratio of 19.7 applies a material leverage penalty, constraining financial flexibility and compressing the risk/reward to 0.14-to-1 in an unfavorable direction with just 1% headroom to the $20.34 resistance target.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 5x over 4 consecutive quarters as debt is repaid from operating cash flow.