Value
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| p ocf | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸P/OCF: 11.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
CWK · Why this verdict
Why Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Analysts see 31% upside and recent earnings beats have been material, but the stock carries a confirmed death-cross technical setup, business quality well below the minimum acceptable floor, and no identifiable competitive moat — making this a speculative recovery where the structural concerns are not yet resolved.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analyst consensus implies approximately 31% upside to the near-term price target of $15.22, and the risk/reward of roughly 2-to-1 in your favor suggests that, if the recovery thesis plays out, the stock could deliver meaningful returns from current levels. Sentiment breakdown | The stock closes within 5% of $15.22 within 12 months as revenue growth and earnings beats support multiple expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for recovery-stage businesses tend to anchor to optimistic scenarios; if the recovery stalls, targets will be revised down, compressing both the share price and the implied upside simultaneously. | ||
Two beats in the last two reported quarters — with an average EPS surprise of approximately 13.5% and the most recent quarter surprising by nearly 13% — suggest earnings delivery is improving after a period of in-line results. Earnings | Average EPS surprise remains above 5% for four consecutive quarters, extending the improving track record and giving analysts confidence to raise targets. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two quarters before the recent beats were in-line results, meaning the improvement is only two quarters old — too short a streak to confirm a durable change in guidance discipline or business momentum. | ||
At a quality score of 3.3 — below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0 — and with no identifiable competitive moat, the business lacks the structural durability that would give confidence in a sustained earnings recovery. Quality breakdown | If quality improves, the Piotroski F-Score should rise above 7 out of 9 for two consecutive quarters, signaling genuine balance-sheet strengthening that could narrow the quality gap. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business generates excellent free-cash-flow conversion of 539% relative to net income, suggesting real cash generation that is not captured in quality scores — that cash may finance moat-building investment over time. | ||
A death-cross pattern combined with falling on-balance volume and positioning below the 200-day moving average indicates the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term, limiting the probability that the stock can sustain upside from current levels without a sentiment shift. Engine gate (failed) | A technical reversal is confirmed when the stock closes above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for four consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is at mid-range, suggesting internal momentum may be turning even before price recovers above the long-term moving average — the death cross may be a lagging rather than leading signal here. | ||
Analyst consensus implies approximately 31% upside to the near-term price target of $15.22, and the risk/reward of roughly 2-to-1 in your favor suggests that, if the recovery thesis plays out, the stock could deliver meaningful returns from current levels.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes within 5% of $15.22 within 12 months as revenue growth and earnings beats support multiple expansion.
CounterAnalyst targets for recovery-stage businesses tend to anchor to optimistic scenarios; if the recovery stalls, targets will be revised down, compressing both the share price and the implied upside simultaneously.
Two beats in the last two reported quarters — with an average EPS surprise of approximately 13.5% and the most recent quarter surprising by nearly 13% — suggest earnings delivery is improving after a period of in-line results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS surprise remains above 5% for four consecutive quarters, extending the improving track record and giving analysts confidence to raise targets.
CounterThe two quarters before the recent beats were in-line results, meaning the improvement is only two quarters old — too short a streak to confirm a durable change in guidance discipline or business momentum.
At a quality score of 3.3 — below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0 — and with no identifiable competitive moat, the business lacks the structural durability that would give confidence in a sustained earnings recovery.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If quality improves, the Piotroski F-Score should rise above 7 out of 9 for two consecutive quarters, signaling genuine balance-sheet strengthening that could narrow the quality gap.
CounterThe business generates excellent free-cash-flow conversion of 539% relative to net income, suggesting real cash generation that is not captured in quality scores — that cash may finance moat-building investment over time.
A death-cross pattern combined with falling on-balance volume and positioning below the 200-day moving average indicates the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term, limiting the probability that the stock can sustain upside from current levels without a sentiment shift.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A technical reversal is confirmed when the stock closes above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for four consecutive weeks.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is at mid-range, suggesting internal momentum may be turning even before price recovers above the long-term moving average — the death cross may be a lagging rather than leading signal here.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 539% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $464,171 (0.015% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.10
Upside
+17.1%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.46>1.3, MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Quality at 3.3, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst consensus implies approximately 31% upside to the near-term price target of $15.22, and the risk/reward of roughly 2-to-1 in your favor suggests that, if the recovery thesis plays out, the stock could deliver meaningful returns from current levels.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $13.39 (current price), eliminating the implied upside.
- P2Two beats in the last two reported quarters — with an average EPS surprise of approximately 13.5% and the most recent quarter surprising by nearly 13% — suggest earnings delivery is improving after a period of in-line results.
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3At a quality score of 3.3 — below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0 — and with no identifiable competitive moat, the business lacks the structural durability that would give confidence in a sustained earnings recovery.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 7 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters from the current level.
- P4A death-cross pattern combined with falling on-balance volume and positioning below the 200-day moving average indicates the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term, limiting the probability that the stock can sustain upside from current levels without a sentiment shift.
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise exceeds 25% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 13.5% average, catalyzing a technical reversal.