Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
COKE · Why this verdict
Why Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
At roughly 4.8 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio near zero and a recent three-of-four earnings beat history, the business is meaningfully undervalued on fundamentals, but near-term price appreciation is tightly capped—just 2.6% headroom to the resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward geometry—while an overwhelming single-supplier relationship limits strategic independence.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Shares trade at approximately 4.8 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio near zero, reflecting a valuation that screens well below the sector median and implies the market has not yet credited the earnings stream the business is generating. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple expands materially toward the peer median over the next four quarters, driven by sustained earnings delivery and a re-rating of the distribution franchise. | →Stable |
| CounterA structurally low multiple can persist in a capital-intensive distribution business with limited pricing autonomy; without a clear catalyst, the discount may be permanent rather than a mispricing. | ||
With approximately 85% of volume dependent on a single upstream supplier, the business operates with limited pricing leverage, material contract renewal risk, and little room to diversify its portfolio or margins independently. Bear case | If concentration risk eases, gross margin should improve and product diversity should increase—any contract amendment or portfolio diversification announcement would be a leading indicator. | →Stable |
| CounterA deeply embedded distribution relationship with a leading global beverage company can also be a durable competitive position; the concentration becomes a liability only if the supplier changes terms unfavorably. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters produced positive EPS surprises, with an average beat of nearly 17%, suggesting management guides conservatively and regularly delivers results above street expectations. Earnings | The beat rate remains at 3 of 4 or better over the next four quarters, with average positive surprises exceeding 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the recent history was a meaningful 11% shortfall, and any narrowing of the guidance cushion as analyst estimates catch up to actual delivery would reduce the reliable outperformance margin. | ||
At just 2.6% below the near-term resistance target of $190.33, upside is nearly exhausted and the risk/reward sits at roughly 0.37-to-1 in the bear's favor—a geometry that does not justify initiating or adding capital at current levels. Price targets | A catalyst-driven break above $190.33 with sustained volume would reset the technical range and restore a more attractive entry setup. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock trading close to resistance with strong underlying fundamentals can clear that level quickly on a positive catalyst; thin headline upside to a resistance target is not a permanent price ceiling. | ||
Shares trade at approximately 4.8 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio near zero, reflecting a valuation that screens well below the sector median and implies the market has not yet credited the earnings stream the business is generating.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple expands materially toward the peer median over the next four quarters, driven by sustained earnings delivery and a re-rating of the distribution franchise.
CounterA structurally low multiple can persist in a capital-intensive distribution business with limited pricing autonomy; without a clear catalyst, the discount may be permanent rather than a mispricing.
With approximately 85% of volume dependent on a single upstream supplier, the business operates with limited pricing leverage, material contract renewal risk, and little room to diversify its portfolio or margins independently.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If concentration risk eases, gross margin should improve and product diversity should increase—any contract amendment or portfolio diversification announcement would be a leading indicator.
CounterA deeply embedded distribution relationship with a leading global beverage company can also be a durable competitive position; the concentration becomes a liability only if the supplier changes terms unfavorably.
Three of the last four reported quarters produced positive EPS surprises, with an average beat of nearly 17%, suggesting management guides conservatively and regularly delivers results above street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate remains at 3 of 4 or better over the next four quarters, with average positive surprises exceeding 10%.
CounterThe one miss in the recent history was a meaningful 11% shortfall, and any narrowing of the guidance cushion as analyst estimates catch up to actual delivery would reduce the reliable outperformance margin.
At just 2.6% below the near-term resistance target of $190.33, upside is nearly exhausted and the risk/reward sits at roughly 0.37-to-1 in the bear's favor—a geometry that does not justify initiating or adding capital at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A catalyst-driven break above $190.33 with sustained volume would reset the technical range and restore a more attractive entry setup.
CounterA stock trading close to resistance with strong underlying fundamentals can clear that level quickly on a positive catalyst; thin headline upside to a resistance target is not a permanent price ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 135%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.21
- ▸Above max pain $140
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 56.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Growth at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Peer rank at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Shares trade at approximately 4.8 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio near zero, reflecting a valuation that screens well below the sector median and implies the market has not yet credited the earnings stream the business is generating.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation discount has been recognized and the cheap-entry premise no longer applies.
- P2Three of the last four reported quarters produced positive EPS surprises, with an average beat of nearly 17%, suggesting management guides conservatively and regularly delivers results above street expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3With approximately 85% of volume dependent on a single upstream supplier, the business operates with limited pricing leverage, material contract renewal risk, and little room to diversify its portfolio or margins independently.
Trip ifSupplier concentration falls below 70% of total volume as the company diversifies its distribution sourcing agreements.
- P4At just 2.6% below the near-term resistance target of $190.33, upside is nearly exhausted and the risk/reward sits at roughly 0.37-to-1 in the bear's favor—a geometry that does not justify initiating or adding capital at current levels.
Trip ifPrice closes above $190.33 and holds for 5 consecutive trading days, establishing a new technical floor and resetting the upside geometry.