Value
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| p ocf | 5.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 20.3x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
CIGI · Why this verdict
Why Colliers International Group In (CIGI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A real-estate services firm with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow running at 2.76 times reported net income trades at a 34.5% discount to the consensus price target, offering a 5.1-to-1 reward/risk ratio; the principal obstacle is a confirmed price downtrend — moving averages have crossed bearishly and declined 6.1% over the past 30 days — combined with two consecutive earnings misses that have stalled near-term re-rating.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A 34.5% discount to the consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 5.1-to-1 in favor of the upside offers materially asymmetric positioning for patient investors willing to hold through the current technical weakness. Price targets | The stock closes at least half of the gap to the $127.89 consensus target within 12 months, with the reward/risk ratio remaining above 1.5-to-1 on a rolling basis. | →Stable |
| CounterA rich implied upside can persist for extended periods when the stock is in a confirmed downtrend; without a catalyst to re-engage buyers, the consensus target may be revised downward, narrowing the apparent discount before the stock reaches it. | ||
Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 6.1% over the past 30 days, with volume in distribution — a setup that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for entry. Momentum breakdown | The downtrend is falsified if the moving average slope turns positive and the stock sustains above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD indicator is described as improving even within the confirmed downtrend, suggesting selling momentum may be decelerating; a single strong earnings quarter could compress the moving-average divergence quickly and trigger a reversal. | ||
Free cash flow is 2.76 times reported net income — indicating the business converts its earnings into cash at a high multiple of accounting income — and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 confirms broad financial health across balance-sheet, profitability, and efficiency dimensions. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the underlying cash generation is structural rather than transient. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in real-estate services can be driven by working-capital timing rather than structural earnings quality; if deal volume in the underlying market slows, collections could lag and compress the conversion ratio. | ||
The two most recent quarters produced earnings misses of 2.3% and 4.5% below consensus respectively — a reversal from two prior strong beats — suggesting near-term execution has slipped and adding uncertainty to the fundamental recovery case. Earnings | Two consecutive quarterly earnings beats over the next 6 months would confirm the miss trend has reversed and rebuild confidence in management's delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe trailing four-quarter average surprise remains positive at 3.5%, carried by a 16.5% beat two quarters prior; the two recent misses may reflect timing of transaction closings rather than a structural deterioration in the revenue base. | ||
A put/call ratio of 1.46 and implied volatility of 108% signal that market participants are paying a significant premium to protect against or bet on further downside, creating an additional sentiment headwind that can suppress price recovery even when fundamentals are intact. Key risks | Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses below 60% over the next 2 quarters, signaling that the hedging overhang has cleared. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh implied volatility cuts both ways — it inflates put premiums but also means any positive surprise is met with an outsized move; a strong earnings beat in a high-IV environment can produce a sharper positive re-rating than the same beat in a low-IV environment. | ||
A 34.5% discount to the consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 5.1-to-1 in favor of the upside offers materially asymmetric positioning for patient investors willing to hold through the current technical weakness.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least half of the gap to the $127.89 consensus target within 12 months, with the reward/risk ratio remaining above 1.5-to-1 on a rolling basis.
CounterA rich implied upside can persist for extended periods when the stock is in a confirmed downtrend; without a catalyst to re-engage buyers, the consensus target may be revised downward, narrowing the apparent discount before the stock reaches it.
Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 6.1% over the past 30 days, with volume in distribution — a setup that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The downtrend is falsified if the moving average slope turns positive and the stock sustains above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe MACD indicator is described as improving even within the confirmed downtrend, suggesting selling momentum may be decelerating; a single strong earnings quarter could compress the moving-average divergence quickly and trigger a reversal.
Free cash flow is 2.76 times reported net income — indicating the business converts its earnings into cash at a high multiple of accounting income — and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 confirms broad financial health across balance-sheet, profitability, and efficiency dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the underlying cash generation is structural rather than transient.
CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in real-estate services can be driven by working-capital timing rather than structural earnings quality; if deal volume in the underlying market slows, collections could lag and compress the conversion ratio.
The two most recent quarters produced earnings misses of 2.3% and 4.5% below consensus respectively — a reversal from two prior strong beats — suggesting near-term execution has slipped and adding uncertainty to the fundamental recovery case.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Two consecutive quarterly earnings beats over the next 6 months would confirm the miss trend has reversed and rebuild confidence in management's delivery.
CounterThe trailing four-quarter average surprise remains positive at 3.5%, carried by a 16.5% beat two quarters prior; the two recent misses may reflect timing of transaction closings rather than a structural deterioration in the revenue base.
A put/call ratio of 1.46 and implied volatility of 108% signal that market participants are paying a significant premium to protect against or bet on further downside, creating an additional sentiment headwind that can suppress price recovery even when fundamentals are intact.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses below 60% over the next 2 quarters, signaling that the hedging overhang has cleared.
CounterHigh implied volatility cuts both ways — it inflates put premiums but also means any positive surprise is met with an outsized move; a strong earnings beat in a high-IV environment can produce a sharper positive re-rating than the same beat in a low-IV environment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 276% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 63%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 12.00
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 33.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.11
Upside
+41.7%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 6.11 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Sentiment at 6.6, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Quality at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A 34.5% discount to the consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 5.1-to-1 in favor of the upside offers materially asymmetric positioning for patient investors willing to hold through the current technical weakness.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is cut below $105, reducing implied upside to less than 10%.
- P2Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 6.1% over the past 30 days, with volume in distribution — a setup that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for entry.
Trip ifMoving average slope turns positive AND stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Free cash flow is 2.76 times reported net income — indicating the business converts its earnings into cash at a high multiple of accounting income — and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 confirms broad financial health across balance-sheet, profitability, and efficiency dimensions.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4The two most recent quarters produced earnings misses of 2.3% and 4.5% below consensus respectively — a reversal from two prior strong beats — suggesting near-term execution has slipped and adding uncertainty to the fundamental recovery case.
Trip ifEPS exceeds consensus in 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the recent miss trend.
- P5A put/call ratio of 1.46 and implied volatility of 108% signal that market participants are paying a significant premium to protect against or bet on further downside, creating an additional sentiment headwind that can suppress price recovery even when fundamentals are intact.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive months.