Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
BIO · Why this verdict
Why Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Strong financial health — a perfect Piotroski score of 9 and free cash flow at 136% of net income — provides a quality foundation, but two consecutive recent earnings misses, downward estimate revisions, negative price momentum, and risk/reward geometry that falls below the minimum asymmetry threshold combine to make this an unfavorable near-term setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold at 3.1, with the stock trading under the 200-day moving average — a technical deterioration that has blocked the entry gate, though the long-term average is still marginally rising. Momentum breakdown | If momentum recovers, price should close above the 200-day moving average and RSI should rise above 55 within two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is still rising at approximately 0.5% per month — consistent with a temporary pullback within an underlying uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown, meaning the technical weakness may self-resolve. | ||
The two most recent quarters both missed consensus — first a shortfall of 4.8%, then the quarter prior a shortfall of 7.0% — reversing what had been a strong beat streak and signaling deterioration in near-term execution. Earnings | If this trend reverses, the next two quarters should each produce EPS beats of more than 5%, indicating the shortfall was temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two quarters prior to the recent misses produced beats of 17% and 49%, demonstrating execution capacity remains; the current misses may reflect near-term estimate calibration rather than a fundamental step-down. | ||
The analyst consensus target has been reached while estimates are trending downward, leaving the risk/reward at a 1.3-to-1 ratio — favorable in direction but below the minimum asymmetry threshold required for a new entry; roughly 8% of headroom exists only to a technical resistance level, not analyst upside. Bear case | If this resolves, analyst consensus should expand to provide more than 15% upside from the current price, restoring a compelling entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical resistance at $313 is approximately 8% above current prices; if the stock clears that level with volume, the price target framework could reset materially higher, unlocking a more favorable entry. | ||
A perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 136% of net income provide a solid fundamental floor, suggesting the business remains financially sound despite the recent earnings shortfalls. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 9 and FCF stays above net income for the next four quarters, affirming financial discipline even as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive misses with estimates trending down suggest the fundamental picture may be softening; if the miss pattern continues, Piotroski components tied to earnings quality could begin to weaken. | ||
Momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold at 3.1, with the stock trading under the 200-day moving average — a technical deterioration that has blocked the entry gate, though the long-term average is still marginally rising.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If momentum recovers, price should close above the 200-day moving average and RSI should rise above 55 within two quarters.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is still rising at approximately 0.5% per month — consistent with a temporary pullback within an underlying uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown, meaning the technical weakness may self-resolve.
The two most recent quarters both missed consensus — first a shortfall of 4.8%, then the quarter prior a shortfall of 7.0% — reversing what had been a strong beat streak and signaling deterioration in near-term execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If this trend reverses, the next two quarters should each produce EPS beats of more than 5%, indicating the shortfall was temporary.
CounterThe two quarters prior to the recent misses produced beats of 17% and 49%, demonstrating execution capacity remains; the current misses may reflect near-term estimate calibration rather than a fundamental step-down.
The analyst consensus target has been reached while estimates are trending downward, leaving the risk/reward at a 1.3-to-1 ratio — favorable in direction but below the minimum asymmetry threshold required for a new entry; roughly 8% of headroom exists only to a technical resistance level, not analyst upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this resolves, analyst consensus should expand to provide more than 15% upside from the current price, restoring a compelling entry geometry.
CounterTechnical resistance at $313 is approximately 8% above current prices; if the stock clears that level with volume, the price target framework could reset materially higher, unlocking a more favorable entry.
A perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 136% of net income provide a solid fundamental floor, suggesting the business remains financially sound despite the recent earnings shortfalls.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 9 and FCF stays above net income for the next four quarters, affirming financial discipline even as earnings recover.
CounterTwo consecutive misses with estimates trending down suggest the fundamental picture may be softening; if the miss pattern continues, Piotroski components tied to earnings quality could begin to weaken.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.8 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.4 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $135,597 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.54
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.54 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, Growth at 6.4, and Technical at 5.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.1, Momentum at 2.1, and Sentiment at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The two most recent quarters both missed consensus — first a shortfall of 4.8%, then the quarter prior a shortfall of 7.0% — reversing what had been a strong beat streak and signaling deterioration in near-term execution.
Trip ifEPS beats consensus by more than 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The analyst consensus target has been reached while estimates are trending downward, leaving the risk/reward at a 1.3-to-1 ratio — favorable in direction but below the minimum asymmetry threshold required for a new entry; roughly 8% of headroom exists only to a technical resistance level, not analyst upside.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises to more than 15% above the current stock price.
- P3A perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 136% of net income provide a solid fundamental floor, suggesting the business remains financially sound despite the recent earnings shortfalls.
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 7 or FCF/NI ratio drops below 80% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold at 3.1, with the stock trading under the 200-day moving average — a technical deterioration that has blocked the entry gate, though the long-term average is still marginally rising.
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading sessions and RSI rises above 55.