Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BBT · Why this verdict
Why Beacon Financial (BBT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The bank delivers exceptional earnings growth of 142% year-over-year with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 and a confirmed golden-cross breakout, but the stock has closed to within 1.2% of its near-term price target with a risk/reward of 0.27-to-1, and a commercial real estate and commercial loan concentration of 77.4% of the portfolio creates meaningful credit-cycle exposure that warrants holding rather than adding at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial real estate and commercial loans account for 77.4% of the loan portfolio, concentrated in New England and New York, creating elevated credit risk if commercial property values or regional economic conditions deteriorate. Risk breakdown | Commercial real estate and commercial loans fall below 65% of the total loan book from the current 77.4% over the next 12 months, indicating portfolio diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 suggests current credit quality is strong, and regional concentration in dense urban markets may reflect deliberate positioning in high-quality borrowers rather than undisciplined risk accumulation. | ||
The bank delivered earnings growth of 142% year-over-year, ranking at the top of its regional peer group for growth, with a forward price-to-earnings of 8.7x and a PEG of 0.05 suggesting the market has not yet fully priced the acceleration. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth continues above 30% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the case for a growth-at-reasonable-price entry. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates have fallen -7% in the past 30 days and the most recent quarter missed consensus by 16.5%, suggesting the growth trajectory may be decelerating faster than the headline year-over-year comparison implies. | ||
A Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9 places the bank among the most financially sound names in its peer group, reflecting strong signals across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score is maintained at 7 or above for the next 2 annual reporting periods, confirming the balance sheet quality is durable across the credit cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores can lag changes in credit quality by multiple quarters; a portfolio weighted 77.4% toward commercial real estate and commercial loans may take time to show deterioration even as conditions shift. | ||
The stock sits just 1.2% below its near-term price target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.27-to-1, well below the minimum 1.5-to-1 bar, making the current entry unattractive and the setup more suitable for maintaining an existing position than initiating a new one. Price targets | A pullback restores upside to the price target of more than 10% from the current 1.2%, creating a more favorable risk/reward setup within the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed golden-cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume can extend price above near-term targets in strong momentum regimes, particularly when growth is accelerating. | ||
Commercial real estate and commercial loans account for 77.4% of the loan portfolio, concentrated in New England and New York, creating elevated credit risk if commercial property values or regional economic conditions deteriorate.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate and commercial loans fall below 65% of the total loan book from the current 77.4% over the next 12 months, indicating portfolio diversification.
CounterA Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 suggests current credit quality is strong, and regional concentration in dense urban markets may reflect deliberate positioning in high-quality borrowers rather than undisciplined risk accumulation.
The bank delivered earnings growth of 142% year-over-year, ranking at the top of its regional peer group for growth, with a forward price-to-earnings of 8.7x and a PEG of 0.05 suggesting the market has not yet fully priced the acceleration.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth continues above 30% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the case for a growth-at-reasonable-price entry.
CounterAnalyst estimates have fallen -7% in the past 30 days and the most recent quarter missed consensus by 16.5%, suggesting the growth trajectory may be decelerating faster than the headline year-over-year comparison implies.
A Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9 places the bank among the most financially sound names in its peer group, reflecting strong signals across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score is maintained at 7 or above for the next 2 annual reporting periods, confirming the balance sheet quality is durable across the credit cycle.
CounterPiotroski scores can lag changes in credit quality by multiple quarters; a portfolio weighted 77.4% toward commercial real estate and commercial loans may take time to show deterioration even as conditions shift.
The stock sits just 1.2% below its near-term price target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.27-to-1, well below the minimum 1.5-to-1 bar, making the current entry unattractive and the setup more suitable for maintaining an existing position than initiating a new one.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback restores upside to the price target of more than 10% from the current 1.2%, creating a more favorable risk/reward setup within the next 6 months.
CounterA confirmed golden-cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume can extend price above near-term targets in strong momentum regimes, particularly when growth is accelerating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.3 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 142% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 9.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 2.2 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-7.0%)
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 9.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Estimates down -7.0% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-7.6%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.1, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.2, Technical at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The bank delivered earnings growth of 142% year-over-year, ranking at the top of its regional peer group for growth, with a forward price-to-earnings of 8.7x and a PEG of 0.05 suggesting the market has not yet fully priced the acceleration.
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 142% pace.
- P2A Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9 places the bank among the most financially sound names in its peer group, reflecting strong signals across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 from the current 8 in the next annual financial report.
- P3The stock sits just 1.2% below its near-term price target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.27-to-1, well below the minimum 1.5-to-1 bar, making the current entry unattractive and the setup more suitable for maintaining an existing position than initiating a new one.
Trip ifUpside to price target recovers to more than 10% from the current 1.2%, restoring a more favorable risk/reward entry setup.
- P4Commercial real estate and commercial loans account for 77.4% of the loan portfolio, concentrated in New England and New York, creating elevated credit risk if commercial property values or regional economic conditions deteriorate.
Trip ifCommercial real estate and commercial loans fall below 65% of total loans from the current 77.4% per annual report disclosure.