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AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS; Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

AGNC Investment Corp. is a leveraged Agency RMBS mortgage REIT investing primarily in GSE-guaranteed residential mortgage-backed securities. It earns net interest income from the spread between MBS yields and repurchase agreement borrowing costs, maintaining 6-10x leverage with... Read more

$24.83-1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#14 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield8.81%(5y avg 7.96%)Payout—
Stop $24.56Target $24.57(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS; Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.0Qual5.2Grw5.0Mom3.6Sent5.0Ins4.2Peer5.7Tech6.8Risk6.45.1OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)—
Mkt Cap—
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn91.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth—
Beta1.33
Dividend8.81%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAgency RMBS
    10-K Item 1: 'Our investments consist predominantly of Agency RMBS which, in addition to carrying a GSE or U.S. Government guarantee against loss of principal'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyFICC GCF Repo service
    10-K Item 1: 'FICC's GCF Repo service, which represents a significant portion of our total borrowing capacity'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Macd
3.4
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.52Resistance $25.07

Price Targets

$25
$25
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for AGNCM.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGNCM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS; Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.56. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the AGNCM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.57 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $24.56. Stop-loss: $24.56.

What are the risks of investing in AGNCM?

Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS; Near 52-week high (2.1% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is AGNCM overvalued or undervalued?

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit trades at a P/E of N/A (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGNCM?

20 analysts cover AGNCM with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

What does AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit do?AGNC Investment Corp. is a leveraged Agency RMBS mortgage REIT investing primarily in GSE-guaranteed residential...

AGNC Investment Corp. is a leveraged Agency RMBS mortgage REIT investing primarily in GSE-guaranteed residential mortgage-backed securities. It earns net interest income from the spread between MBS yields and repurchase agreement borrowing costs, maintaining 6-10x leverage with 54 full-time employees.